Angourakis et al. - Session #672 - Computational Models in Archaeology
7th September 2018
https://andros-spica.github.io/EAA2018_simulation/

A game of…
chairs, Musical Chairs

A theory-building Agent-Based approach to agro-pastoral landscapes in Eurasia

Andreas Angourakis, Agnese Fusaro, Verónica Martínez Ferreras, Josep M. Gurt Session #672 - CAA @ EAA: Computational Models in Archaeology

available at https://andros-spica.github.io/EAA2018_simulation/
https://andros-spica.github.io/EAA2018_simulation/index.html?print-pdf (printable version)
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Explaining land use patterns

Farming

hydro regions

Herding

herd routes

Stride, S. (2005). Géographie archéologique de la province du Surkhan Darya (Ouzbékistan du sud / Bactriane du nord). Ph.D thesis, Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne.
Overlapping niches: Stakeholders must cooperate or compete for land use

"Bad" question

Are farming-herding interactions competitive or cooperative?

"Good" questions

Through which mechanisms and under which conditions may stakeholders cooperate or compete?

What impact does these aspects have on the existence of certain land use patterns?

Modeling framework

mechanisms
  • For exploring several mechanisms
  • Land use competition as the core mechanism
  • Progressive and modular theory-building approach

Musical Chairs model

mechanisms MC results MC
  • Limited area
  • Constant pressure
  • competitive and non-competitive periods
  • Competitive situations resolved asymmetrically

Strong bimodality
Bias favouring farming

Publications ⇓

Musical Chairs model publications

ANGOURAKIS, A., RONDELLI, B., STRIDE, S., RUBIO–CAMPILLO, X., BALBO, A. L., TORRANO, A., MARTÍNEZ, V., MADELLA, M.; GURT, J. M. 2014, “Land Use Patterns in Central Asia. Step 1: The Musical Chairs Model”, Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory, 21: 405-425. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10816–013–9197–0.

ANGOURAKIS, A. 2014, “Exploring the oases of Central Asia: A model of interaction between mobile livestock breeding and sedentary agriculture”, in Antela-Bernárdez, B. and Vidal, J. (eds.) Central Asia in Antiquity: Interdisciplinary Approaches, BAR International Series 2665, pp. 3-16.

ANGOURAKIS, A., 2016a (February 3). "Musical Chairs" (Version 1). CoMSES Computational Model Library. https://www.openabm.org/model/4880/version/1

Nice Musical Chairs model

mechanisms NMC
  • Group dynamics
  • Pairing
  • Group management
  • Pasture tenure

Main results

NMC Fig 5 NMC Fig 6







Publications ⇓

  • Land use competition
    + open access =
    bias towards farming
  • Group competition =
    larger groups
  • Pairing has the smaller effect
  • Management add to diversity, assuming group target is arbitrary
  • Restrictive access greatly cancels the asymmetry caused by herding mobility

Nice Musical Chairs model publications

Angourakis, A., Salpeteur, M., Martínez, V., and Gurt, J.M. (2017). The Nice Musical Chairs model. Exploring the role of competition and cooperation between farming and herding in the formation of land use patterns in arid Afro-Eurasia. Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory, 21: 405-425. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10816-016-9309-8.

Angourakis, A. (2017, January 9). "Nice Musical Chairs" (Version 5). CoMSES Computational Model Library. https://www.openabm.org/model/4885/version/5

Nomad Frontier model

mechanisms NF
Single-class groups
farming groups or herding groups

  • Spatial logistics
  • Alliance dynamics
  • Pasture tenure

Nomad Frontier model

mechanisms space
  • Spatial logistics:
    • Distance as a factor
    • Farming and herding group centres
gradient fuction

Nomad Frontier model

mechanisms alliances
  • Alliance dynamics:
    • Emerging hierarchical structures
    • Production and tribute
    • Governance influence
    • Affinity and Alliance formation
  • Pasture tenureTerritorial marks
  • territorial marking

Main results


NF results - farming
  • Bias towards farming is even clearer, presumably because of spatial relations
  • Territorial marking (signal) has a milder effect compared to 'restrictive access' (social norm)
  • Social complexity, as defined in the model (alliance dynamics), has virtually no effect on the diversity of land use patterns.

Main results

NF results - topography
  • Distibution of farming centres
    increased probability of big oasis if farming centres position is not constrained
  • Marginalisation of herding groups:
    Herding Centre mobility cause them to be 'pushed' more easily

Main results

NF results - autonomy-centralisation NF results - farming
  • Farming predominance linked to centralisation
  • ... while herding predominance is associated with more and
    more autonomous groups/alliances

$$Autonomy index = {{numAutonomousEntities * numGroups} \over maxNumGroups^2}$$

$$Land use centralization index =$$
$${bigAutonomousEntityTerritory \over {(countAutonomousEntities * meanAutonomousEntityTerritory)}}$$

GIF exp_1 GIF exp_200 GIF exp_2110 GIF exp_3405 GIF exp_3585

Simulations: 1000 steps (years). Steps shown: 5, 10, and 100 steps intervals up to 1000.

Conclusions

  • Land use competition favours farming
  • "Big oases" tend to be centralised territories (few groups)
  • Any association between farming and herding stakeholders (explored so far) tend to benefit farming in the long run
  • The most effective strategy (explored so far) for herding stakeholder is to invest in territorial marks

A game of…
chairs, Musical Chairs

A theory-building Agent-Based approach to agro-pastoral landscapes in Eurasia

Andreas Angourakis, Agnese Fusaro, Verónica Martínez Ferreras, Josep M. Gurt Session #672 - CAA @ EAA: Computational Models in Archaeology

THANK YOU!

address any questions to A. Angourakis: andros.spica@gmail.com

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