Angourakis et al. - Session #672 - Computational Models in Archaeology
7th September 2018
https://andros-spica.github.io/EAA2018_simulation/

A game of…
chairs, Musical Chairs

A theory-building Agent-Based approach to agro-pastoral landscapes in Eurasia

Andreas Angourakis, Agnese Fusaro, Verónica Martínez Ferreras, Josep M. Gurt Session #672 - CAA @ EAA: Computational Models in Archaeology

available at https://andros-spica.github.io/EAA2018_simulation/
https://andros-spica.github.io/EAA2018_simulation/index.html?print-pdf (printable version)
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Explaining land use patterns

Land use patterns can be understood as outcomes of a series of contingencies at different scales and different dimensions of human behavior and its environment.

Set of possible states in terms of...

  • Proportions
    between land use classes
  • Stability
  • Distributions
    of land use classes
  • Centralization
    (decision-making)
  • Specialization
    (lifestyles)
  • Intensification
    (labor, resources)
  • Development
    (productivity, institutions, craftsmanship)
  • Wealth
    accumulation and distribution
  • Resilience

In preindustrial Eurasia...

Subsistence strategies produced mainly two distinguishable land use classes, farming and herding.


Shades between these may fit in one or another class, depending on the strategies effective impact on the landscape (do they generate/use farms or pastures?).

Implicit models

Separate niches

separate niches

Interaction is independent of land use

Overlapping niches

overlapping niches

Stakeholders must cooperate or compete for land use

Farming

hydro regions

Herding

herd routes

Stride, S. (2005). Géographie archéologique de la province du Surkhan Darya (Ouzbékistan du sud / Bactriane du nord). Ph.D thesis, Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne.
The separate niche models is not useful!

"Bad" question

Are farming-herding interactions competitive or cooperative?

"Good" questions

Through which mechanisms and under which conditions may stakeholders cooperate or compete?

What impact does these aspects have on the existence of certain land use patterns?

Modeling framework

mechanisms
  • For exploring several mechanisms
  • Land use competition as the core mechanism
  • Progressive and modular theory-building approach

Musical Chairs model

mechanisms MC
  • Limited area
  • Constant pressure to expand land use classes
  • Alternancy between competitive and non-competitive periods
  • Competitive situations resolved asymmetrically:
    herding stakeholders cannot retain the land while herds are away

Implications of competition

results MC

  • Strong bimodality
  • Bias towards specialized farming economies

Musical Chairs model publications

ANGOURAKIS, A., RONDELLI, B., STRIDE, S., RUBIO–CAMPILLO, X., BALBO, A. L., TORRANO, A., MARTÍNEZ, V., MADELLA, M.; GURT, J. M. 2014, “Land Use Patterns in Central Asia. Step 1: The Musical Chairs Model”, Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory, 21: 405-425. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10816–013–9197–0.

ANGOURAKIS, A. 2014, “Exploring the oases of Central Asia: A model of interaction between mobile livestock breeding and sedentary agriculture”, in Antela-Bernárdez, B. and Vidal, J. (eds.) Central Asia in Antiquity: Interdisciplinary Approaches, BAR International Series 2665, pp. 3-16.

ANGOURAKIS, A., 2016a (February 3). "Musical Chairs" (Version 1). CoMSES Computational Model Library. https://www.openabm.org/model/4880/version/1

Nice Musical Chairs model

mechanisms NMC
  • Group dynamics
  • Pairing
  • Group management
  • Pasture tenure

Nice Musical Chairs model

mechanisms group dynamics
  • Group dynamics:
    • Herding and farming can coexist in the same group
    • cooperation within, competition between
    • size x effectiveness = competitive strength
    • changing group allegiance

Nice Musical Chairs model

mechanisms pairing
  • Pairing:
    farming and herding may perform better by being affiliated to the same group

Nice Musical Chairs model

mechanisms management
  • Group management:
    group leadership presses individual stakeholders to collectively pursue a farming/herding ratio

Nice Musical Chairs model

mechanisms pasture tenure
  • Pasture tenure:
    open versus restrictive.
    Restrictive access means that pastoral land is owned at the group level.

Main results

NMC Fig 5 NMC Fig 6
  • Land use competition
    + open access =
    bias towards farming
  • Group competition =
    larger groups
  • Pairing has the smaller effect
  • Management add to diversity, assuming group target is arbitrary
  • Restrictive access greatly cancels the asymmetry caused by herding mobility

Nice Musical Chairs model publications

Angourakis, A., Salpeteur, M., Martínez, V., and Gurt, J.M. (2017). The Nice Musical Chairs model. Exploring the role of competition and cooperation between farming and herding in the formation of land use patterns in arid Afro-Eurasia. Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory, 21: 405-425. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10816-016-9309-8.

Angourakis, A. (2017, January 9). "Nice Musical Chairs" (Version 5). CoMSES Computational Model Library. https://www.openabm.org/model/4885/version/5

Nomad Frontier model

mechanisms NF
Single-class groups
farming groups or herding groups

  • Spatial logistics
  • Alliance dynamics
  • Pasture tenureTerritorial marks

Nomad Frontier model

mechanisms space
  • Spatial logistics:
    Spatial relationships are relevant for most processes in the model.
    Effects following a general gradient function:
gradient fuction

Nomad Frontier model

NF centres
  • Spatial logistics:
    • Group centres: reference points for all stakeholders in a group
    • Farming centres are fixed; herding centres adapt to group's land use
    • Farming centres move only when losing their central patch

Nomad Frontier model

mechanisms alliances
  • Alliance dynamics:
    • Emerging hierarchical structures
    • Production and tribute
    • Governance influence
    • Affinity
    • Alliance formation

Nomad Frontier model

hierarchy
  • Alliance dynamics:
    • Emerging hierarchical structures
      Groups form alliances, which in turn can also form alliances (complex structures).
      Alliances centre is placed in the centre of the most influent group.
      Aliances traits depend on the traits of members and their respective wealth.

Nomad Frontier model

production and tribute
  • Alliance dynamics:
    • Production and tribute
      Patches produce goods that sent to its group centre.
      Groups and alliances can accumulate wealth and send tribute to their alliance.
      Groups and alliances vary in "egoism", i.e. a value defining their tendency to keep their wealth.

Nomad Frontier model

influence
  • Alliance dynamics:
    • Governance influence
      The influence of groups or alliances over members depends on weath and distance to centre.
      Alliance influence also depends on the number of members.

Nomad Frontier model

affinity
  • Alliance dynamics:
    • Affinity
      Groups have memory of their affinity to other groups.
      Affinity is improved when inside an alliance, decreases with competitive situations, and recovers neutrality with time.

Nomad Frontier model

alliance formation
  • Alliance dynamics:
    • Alliance formation
      Autonomous groups and alliances with enough wealth choose among all possible alliances considering mutual influence and affinity.

Nomad Frontier model



territorial marks
  • Territorial marks:
    Pasture tenure is revisited, given its importance in NMC.
    Gradient variation between Open and restrictive access.
    Herding groups signal their territory by modifying the landscape in and around their centre (territorial mark).
    Every time the centre moves, a new mark is placed.
    The mark effect decreases with distance and decay.

Main results


NF results - farming
  • Bias towards farming is even clearer, presumably because of spatial relations
  • Territorial marking (signal) has a milder effect compared to 'restrictive access' (social norm)
  • Social complexity, as defined in the model (alliance dynamics), has virtually no effect on the diversity of land use patterns.

Main results

NF results - topography
  • Distibution of farming centres is important:
    increased probability of big oasis if farming centres position is not constrained
  • Marginalisation of herding groups:
    Herding Centre mobility cause them to be 'pushed' more easily

Main results

NF results - autonomy-centralisation NF results - farming
  • Farming predominance linked to centralisation
  • ... while herding predominance is associated with more and
    more autonomous groups/alliances

$$Autonomy index = {{numAutonomousEntities * numGroups} \over maxNumGroups^2}$$

$$Land use centralization index =$$
$${bigAutonomousEntityTerritory \over {(countAutonomousEntities * meanAutonomousEntityTerritory)}}$$

GIF exp_1 GIF exp_200 GIF exp_2110 GIF exp_3405 GIF exp_3585

Simulations: 1000 steps (years). Steps shown: 5, 10, and 100 steps intervals up to 1000.

Conclusions

  • Land use competition favours farming
  • "Big oases" tend to be centralised territories (few groups)
  • Any association between farming and herding stakeholders (explored so far) tend to benefit farming in the long run
  • The most effective strategy (explored so far) for herding stakeholder is to invest in territorial marks

A game of…
chairs, Musical Chairs

A theory-building Agent-Based approach to agro-pastoral landscapes in Eurasia

Andreas Angourakis, Agnese Fusaro, Verónica Martínez Ferreras, Josep M. Gurt Session #672 - CAA @ EAA: Computational Models in Archaeology

THANK YOU!

address any questions to A. Angourakis: andros.spica@gmail.com

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